Impending Severe Weather for the Northeast

Team TILTTING is currently making preparations to deploy on our first Northeast mission of the season tomorrow, June 26th.

According to the shorter range models (sourcing from the HRRR, NAM 3k CONUS, NAM, and HREF), an eventful Monday afternoon seems to be on tap for the Delmarva region, stretching into Southeastern Pennsylvania and parts of New Jersey. The National Weather Service (NWS) Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has highlighted these regions in an Enhanced Risk (a level 3 out of 5).

An Enhanced Risk encompassing parts of the Delmarva, Southeastern PA, and New Jersey. Image courtesy: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

Considerable amounts of instability (1200+ J/kg) and steepening lapse rates will be present, causing the atmosphere to become conducive for strong to severe thunderstorm development. One concern that could inhibit any tornadic development is the weak shear that is present within the upper level trough. 500 mb heights show less than ideal jet streaks with a general consensus of shear being between 30-40 kts. Models are also suggesting SRH values of 60-120 m^2/s^2 for around Southeastern PA into the Delmarva, which is also less than ideal for any tornadic development. As of right now, it seems the most favorable conditions are south of the Mason-Dixon line into Southeastern Pennsylvania. Some thoughts that were discussed within our forecast team involved taking into consideration the warm frontal boundary that is to move into Northeastern Pennsylvania. The main modes of severe weather across the region will be damaging winds and potential large hail, as outlined by the NWS WFOs in State College, PA and Mount Holly, NJ.

No final decisions regarding our final target destination have been made. We will outline a general target area in the mid-morning hours Monday after taking into consideration mesoscale analysis maps. As of right now, we are looking at the Delmarva region being the target area.