Severe Weather 8/7

Team TILTTING has made preparations to intercept the incoming severe weather system set to impact Pennsylvania in the afternoon hours.

Student research meteorologists observing a sounding from earlier in the day on 8/6. Pictured from left to right is Ryan Argenti, Gabe Pena, and Peyton Simmers. Photo: Melodie Martinez

A surface level disturbance will track into the Great Lakes region, the main culprit of the severe weather on tap for today. With this low pressure disturbance, a cold front will serve as the main lifting mechanism to fire off our severe weather stretching from Georgia to New York state. Along with the cold front, a warm front is going to lift north into the Pennsylvania region, which will allow destabilization throughout the Commonwealth. Numerical model guidance suggest adequate shear parameters will be present with 40-60 knots, which is favorable for tornadic development in discrete supercell formation. Storm relative helicity (SRH) values are also showing values of at least 150-200 m²/s², allowing for thunderstorms to rotate. In addition, a lee side trough is expected to setup along the mountains. Similarly to fronts, this trough will serve as a focal point for destabilization and allow for convective initiation. All severe weather hazards are possible throughout the afternoon hours, with the main concern for damaging wind gusts and a 5% tornado risk, as outlined by the NWS SPC.

Aug 6, 2023 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook. Source: NWS Storm Prediction Center

During the morning hours, cloud cover throughout the region will inhibit some of the morning convection, allowing storms to begin firing off in the afternoon. Once the clouds begin to break in the later morning hours of the day, CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) values will begin to build, allowing instability to reach levels of 1,000-2,000 J/Kg.

Be sure to tune into your local television station, or wherever you get your weather alerts, and please stay weather aware today!

- The TILTTING Team